Strong consumer demand in Mumbai leads to over 11000 property registrations in July 2022: Knigh Frank India

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Out of all the properties registered in July 2022, 86% were residential deals as compared to 87% in the previous month, while commercial property deals contribution has gone up from 8% last month to 10%.

Highlights:

• Robust Property sales registration recorded in July 2022 with a YoY rise of 15% and MoM rise of 14%
• Best performing July month for property registrations & Government collection in the last 10 years
• State Government revenue collection rises by 46% YoY and 13% MoM representing strong consumer demand
• Average daily sale registration crosses 370 for the first time since the implementation of metro cess

Knight Frank India, the leading real estate consultancy in the country, in its latest assessment noted that Mumbai city (BMC area) saw property sale registrations of 11,339 units in July 2022, contributing over INR 829 Crore (Cr) to the state revenues. The number of units registered in July 2022 was the best in a decade for the month of July. 57% registrations were in the price band of INR 1 Cr and over while in terms of apartment size homes ranging between 500-1000 sq ft was the most preferred category of property registered in July 2022.

Strong property registrations momentum continued in July 2022, recording over 11000 properties with a 14% MoM rise in lieu of the robust consumer demand. The property registrations have crossed the 11000 mark for the first time since April 2022. The April month marked the implementation of metro cess that effectively increased the stamp duty by 1%, however most consumers opted for property filing in March 2022 and registered the same in April 2022 to evade the additional 1% metro cess (metro cess implemented in April) leading to strong property registration in the month of April 2022 as well. However, July 2022 has recorded strong sales despite maximum properties being registered and filed in July month itself, effectively most consumers registering their properties paid the additional stamp duty. With the looming inflation pressures, RBI opted for a cumulative repo rate hike of 90 basis points that has stretched home buyer affordability. However property registrations remain buoyant.

Property registrations in July 2022 were 15% above the same period last year despite July 2021 being a strong period as the lockdown had just been lifted and it benefiting from significant spill-over demand. As the restrictions gradually eased since June 2021, developers facilitated customer site visits and closed transactions that couldn’t conclude due to the lockdown in the previous month, leading to a rush in registrations in July 2021. However, with the support of strong consumer sentiment July 2022 has performed strongly making it the best performing July month in terms of property registrations in the last 10 years.

www.newsbarons.comShishir Baijal, Chairman and Managing Director, Knight Frank India said “Strong consumer demand continues to drive the property sales in Mumbai. Post COVID, the revival in housing demand has sustained and facilitated a soft landing for the Mumbai real estate market though there has been an increase in home loan rates and additional 1% stamp duty. The state government revenue has also grown robustly month on month. We expect the market demand to remain steady. However, further rate hike can add pressure on the property demand. Developers remain cognizant of the changing affordability and are expected to plan for risk mitigation such as enabling fixed rate limited period loans, and other measures.”

Table: Mumbai city property sale registrations for the month of July

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Source: Maharashtra Govt- Dept. of Registrations and Stamps (IGR); Knight Frank India Research

Table: Mumbai city property sale registrations

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Source: Maharashtra Govt- Dept. of Registrations and Stamps (IGR); Knight Frank India Research

* Month Impacted by Covid induced lockdown

78% of registered properties in July were bought in the same month

78% of all property sales registrations were for properties transacted in the same month. Even while 15% of properties registered in July 2022 were filed in March 2022 and around 7% of these deals were filed in June 2022, the home buying activity seemed unabated by the rise in stamp duty and home loan rates.

Table: Month of property filing that are registered in July 2022

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Source: Maharashtra Govt- Dept. of Registrations and Stamps (IGR); Knight Frank India Research
* Note: Base Data up to 25th July 2022

86% of the properties registered in July 2022 are residential

Out of all the properties registered in July 2022, 86% were residential deals as compared to 87% in the previous month, while commercial property deals contribution has gone up from 8% last month to 10%. Industrial property deals contributed to 1% while land deals registered stayed under 1%. Other forms of property deals contributed to 3% of the total deals registered in July 2022.

Table: Typology of property deals in July 2022

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Source: Maharashtra Govt- Dept. of Registrations and Stamps (IGR); Knight Frank India Research

Focus remains of 500 – 1,000 sq ft area segment

The share of homes ranging from 500-1000 sq ft accounts to half residential properties registered in July 2022. The share rose from 45% in June 2022 to 50% in July 2022. Compact homes continue to be the second preference with a share take up of 34% in July 2022. Homes ranging from 1000-2000 sq ft saw a share take up of 14% while the share of over 2,000 sqft homes remained unchanged in July 2022 at 2%.

Table: Area wise breakup of apartment sales

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Source: Maharashtra Govt- Dept. of Registrations and Stamps (IGR); Knight Frank India Research

Focus on 1 cr and below deals with the segment bagging a share of 43%

Residential properties ranging from INR 1 Cr to INR 2.5 Cr saw a rise in share from 37% in June 2022 to 42% in July 2022. Focus continues on properties costing less than INR 1 Cr with a share of 43% in July 2022. Properties above 2.5 Cr ticket size remains unchanged since June 2022 at 4% in July 2022, while INR 2.5 Cr to INR 5 Cr have a share contribution of 10% while Residential properties above 5 Cr contribute to under 5% of the total residential deals in July 2022.

Table: Ticket size wise split of property sale registrations

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Source: Maharashtra Govt- Dept. of Registrations and Stamps (IGR); Knight Frank India Research

Western Suburb and Central Suburb account for 84% of the total market

The share of Western Suburbs has risen from 45% in June 2022 to 56% in July 2022 while Central Suburbs has recorded a drop in share of contribution as compared to June 2022 and has gone from 41% in June 2022 to 28% in June 2022. Central Mumbai saw a contribution of 8% while South Mumbai recorded a rise of 2 percentage points to 8%.

Table: Micro-Market wise breakup of apartment sales

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Source: Maharashtra Govt- Dept. of Registrations and Stamps (IGR); Knight Frank India Research

Maximum share of property registrations having ticket sizes of INR 5 Cr and below has been recorded in the Western suburb and Central suburbs micro market. For high value ticket sizes of INR 5 Cr to INR 20 Cr, Central Mumbai recorded largest share contribution. The Western suburb has emerged as a market catering to the housing needs of all income groups.

Table: Micro-Market and Ticket size wise breakup of apartment saleswww.newsbarons.com

Source: Maharashtra Govt- Dept. of Registrations and Stamps (IGR); Knight Frank India Research

Majority buyers do not prefer relocation outside their micro markets

Consumers continue to demonstrate lower inclination towards relocation to a different micro market. Out of city buyers have shown interest in purchasing residential properties primarily in Western Suburbs followed by Central Suburbs for the month of July.

As Central and Western Suburbs are relatively affordable markets, buyers in these micro markets have shown a strong tendency to upgrade to properties within their own micro market. 93% of homebuyers from Central Suburbs and Western Suburbs each prefer their current micro market while purchasing property. About 5% of home buyers from western suburb have relocated to central Suburbs.

Homebuyers from the prime micro markets like Central and South Mumbai have comparatively lower inclination towards property purchase within the micro market. 48% of home buyers from central Mumbai and 60% of home buyers from South Mumbai have purchased a home in the same micro market. Central suburb has emerged as the second preferred market for homebuyers of central and south Mumbai having a share contribution of 33% and 15%. Inclination for homebuyers in central and south Mumbai to relocate to western suburbs remains low with under 12% customers purchasing property in the micro market.

Table: Preferred location of Property purchase

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Source: Maharashtra Govt- Dept. of Registrations and Stamps (IGR); Knight Frank India Research

45% of home buyers in July 2022 are in 31-45 years age bracket

Largest share of home buyers in July 2022 are in the 31- 45 years category having contribution of 45% of the total residential property registrations. 46-60 years category has a share of 33%. While 10% home buyers are under 30 and 12% are over 60.

Table: Age of Home buyers

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Source: Maharashtra Govt- Dept. of Registrations and Stamps (IGR); Knight Frank India Research

Government revenue collection saw a 46% YoYrise

Government revenue collection from property registrations was recorded at INR 829 Cr surpassing collections in July 2021 of INR 567 Cr on account of higher property registration and 1% higher stamp duty rate. Even though the property sale registrations grew by just 15% YoY the government revenue collection has grown by 46% YoY this substantial rise can be attributed to application of additional metro cess.

Revenue collection in July also grew by 13% MoM crossing the INR 800 Cr mark for the first time since March 2022. The daily sale rate stands at 378, best in the last 3 months.

Table: Mumbai city monthly property sale registrations

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Source: Maharashtra Govt- Dept. of Registrations and Stamps (IGR); Knight Frank India Research