Auto retail down by 5% in September 2021: FADA

FADA requests all 2W OEMs to announce special schemes for demand revival in entry level 2W (below 125 cc) segment as the same continues to be a spoilsport.

Highlights:

• On YoY basis, total vehicle retails for the month of September’21 decreases by -5.27%. When compared to September’19 (a regular pre-covid month), overall retails continue to fall by -13.50%.
• On YoY basis, 3W was up by 51%, PV up by 16% and CV was up by 47%. 2W and Tractors fell by -12% and -24% respectively.
• With first half of FY 21-22 coming to an end, total retails grew by 35% YoY with highest growth seen in CV segment at 127%. When compared to 2019, a pre-covid year, overall retails were down by -29%. Except tractors which has grown by 19%, all the other categories continued to be in red.
• FADA requests all 2W OEMs to announce special schemes for demand revival in entry level 2W (below 125 cc) segment as the same continues to be a spoilsport.
• The full-blown semiconductor crises continues further and shows its impact on PVs. Dealers not able to fulfil customer demand due to demand supply mismatch resulting in long waiting period.
• Commercial vehicle segment continues to gain strength as medium CV for the first time rises above pre-pandemic levels of 2019.

The Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) released Vehicle Retail Data for September 2021.

September 2021 Retails

Commenting on how September’21 performed, FADA President Vinkesh Gulati said “Auto retail in the month of September has taken a pause as overall sales were down by -5%. During the 1st half of this FY, while the overall retails were up by 35%, the same was down by -29% when compared to 2019, a pre-covid year. On a long term basis, except tractors which grew by 19% and PV which has almost reached pre-covid levels, all the other segments were in red.

The 2W category continues to play spoilsport as entry level segment is yet to witness healthy growth. This segment’s performance is now becoming critical for the overall 2W to come back on the path of recovery as dealer inventory rises to 30-35 days in anticipation of a good festive. Semiconductor shortage has also started impacting the 150+ cc segment.

The 3W segment is now showing clear signs of tactical shift from ICE to EVs as the ratio has hit a 60:40 split. With offices and educational institutions slowly opening up, electrification of 3W’s will gather a greater momentum in months to come.

As we enter the core of this year’s festive season, the full blown semiconductor crises continues to create hindrance in PV sales as vehicle inventory at dealers end dip to record lows of 15-20 days during the current fiscal. With high demand in this segment, long waiting period continues to frustrate and keep enthusiast buyers in a fix.

The CV segment is finally showing greater strength as all sub-categories continue to grow YoY. MCV for the first time also grows above pre-covid month of Sept’19.

Near Term Outlook

With India entering the 42 days festive period beginning today, the near term outlook for this year’s festive season will be a mixed bag. While Dealers have increased their inventory in 2W category, PV inventory is at the lowest during this FY due to the ongoing semi-conductor crises.

The chip shortage looks less likely to ease within next two quarters. As a result, PV sales is likely to stagnate going ahead even though OEMs are coming ahead with new launches to keep the customer excited. With skyrocketing fuel prices and a drop in purchasing power, entry level customers in rural India are keeping themselves away from fulfilling their mobility needs.

India’s vaccination drive has reached a remarkable momentum. This coupled with a less likelihood of 3rd wave in near future and offices and educational institutions opening up in a phased manner, we anticipate a marginal recovery process to begin in the 2W space. FADA hence requests all 2W OEMs to roll out special promotions schemes so that it can springboard 2W retails for a faster recovery.

• Inventory at the end of September’21
   o Average inventory for Passenger Vehicles ranges from 15-20 days
  o Average inventory for Two–wheelers ranges from 30-35 days

• Liquidity
   o Neutral = 40.7%
   o Good = 31.9%
   o Bad = 27.5%

• Sentiment
   o Neutral = 45.1%
   o Good = 27.5%
   o Bad = 27.5%

Charts showing Vehicle Retail Data

www.newsbarons.com

www.newsbarons.com